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هل اختفى الدولار من السوق اللبناني أو هناك من أخفاه؟

المحرر الاقتصادي-يشكل شحّ الدولار المادة الأساسية لاهتمام العامة والخاصة ما يطرح سؤالا عن انكفائه المبرمج في التداول. alt="هل اختفى الدولار من السوق اللبناني أو هناك من أخفاه؟"

الأحد ٠٨ ديسمبر ٢٠١٩

اخبار ليبانون تابلويد الآن عبر خدمة
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المحرر الاقتصادي-يشكل شحّ الدولار المادة الأساسية لاهتمام العامة والخاصة ما يطرح سؤالا عن انكفائه المبرمج في التداول.

ينفي خبير مالي "انقطاع" الدولار، ويذكّر بأنّ الاقتصاد الحديث لا يرتكز على العملة الورقية في تداولاته بل على "التداول التكنولوجي" عبر بطاقة الإتمان والتعاملات المعروفة في زمن الثورة التكنولوجية.

الا أنّ هذا النوع الاقتصادي الحديث الذي واكبه لبنان مصرفيا، لا يعبّر عن حقيقة ما يحصل في الأسواق المالية المحلية.

يعتبر هذا الخبير المالي، أن مشكلة شح الدولار تعود لأسباب متعددة، منها:

أنّ الاقتصاد اللبناني غير منتظم،فجزء كبير منه يتحرّك خارج القانون، أي يتهرّب من الضرائب على أنواعها(الجمرك،ضريبة القيمة المضافة...)،ويدور خارج إطار الحسابات المصرفية.

هذا النوع من الحركة الاقتصادية، تراجع تدريجيا، بفعل القوانين المالية التي ظهرت منذ العام ٢٠١١،فضيقت عليه، وتراجعت معه التدفقات النقدية غير الشرعية(تبييض الأموال،تجارة المخدرات...)، وانكفأت أيضا تدفقات "المال السياسي والأمني" والمعروف "بمال الحروب والميلشيات" أو "المعارك السياسية ذات البعد الإقليمي".

هذا الواقع الجديد، إضافة الى تراجع الاستثمارات وتدفق أموال المهاجرين، دفع الى "تقليص" المساحة الاقتصادية في لبنان.

يُزاد الى هذه العوامل التي دفعت الى شح الدولار، اندفاع السلطة السياسية الحاكمة في "الإنفاق العام العشوائي" والفساد والتخبط، ما دفع الى "تخزين الدولار الموجود" وبرمجة تداوله عبر ثلاثة منافذ رئيسية:

-نتيجة ارتفاع منسوب تخوّف المصارف اللبنانية من أن تمتص "الدولة" أموالها الموجودة بالعملة الصعبة، أبعدت جزءا مهما من مخزونها الى الخارج لضمان تأمين طلبات زبائنها في التعاملات الداخلية والخارجية،ولتغطية ودائع زبائنها، فتحصنّت المصارف في مخزوناتها، وتشددت محليا  في ضخ الدولار في السوق.

-عمد مصرف لبنان، في هندساته المالية، الى جمع، أو "لمّ" الدولار تعزيزا لموجوداته، فحافظ على احتياطه تأمينا للمتطلبات الاستراتيجية، وحفاظا على استقرار نسبيّ لسعر صرف الليرة اللبنانية...

-ونتيجة انعدام الثقة بالوضع العام، سحب المواطن ودائعه ليخزّنها في منزله.

هذه العوامل امتصّت الدولار من التداول الورقي من دون أن تظهر مشاكل جوهرية في التعاملات بين مصرف وآخر، وبين الداخل والخارج.

وتزامن هذا الشح مع اعتماد الحكومة سياسة التقشف أي الانكماش ما أدى الي تراجع التسليفات والاستثمارات.

ويعتقد الخبير المالي أنّ "المشكلة الأساسية تكمن في انتفاء الأسباب التي أدت الى شح الدولار، وهذا لا يتأمن الا بحكومة ذات ثقة".


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